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Sunday, July 1, 2012

My 1st Draftmaster Recap

Recently, I took the liberty of creating my own version of a Draftmaster, normally run by my good friend, Mr. Jim Day (@Fantasytaz). I asked a group of fantasy experts and top-notch players to take part in this Draftmaster.

I wound up with 14 owners in a 16-round PPR Draft, starting 1 QB, 2 RBs, 2 WRs, 1 TE, 1 Flex (RB/WR/TE), 1 D/ST and 1 K.

The draftsers, in Round 1 order:
1. Josh Moore (@4for4_Josh) of 4for4.com
2. Greg Skora (@GSkora)
3. Ryan McDowell (@RyanMc23) of dynastyleaguefootball.com
4. Jim Day (@Fantasytaz) of fantasytaz.com
5. Allie Fontana (@AllieFontana), cohost of the Twitter Fantasy Football Roundtable w/ Jim Day and the BFD Fantasy Football Show w/ Lou Tranquilli
6. @FantasyThrowdwn of fantasythrowdown.com
7. Eric Yeomans (@Eric_Yeomans) of ProFootballFocus.com
8. Jarrett Behar (@EyeoftheGator) of dynastyleaguefootball.com
9. Andrew Morton (@WideReceiving) of starstreet.com
10. Yours truly
11. Shane Hallam (@ShanePHallam) of DraftCountdown.com
12. Brian Quinlan (@BNQuinlan)
13. Bruce Kimbrough (@FatKat52)
14. Alex Miglio (@AlexMiglio) of ProFootballFocus.com

Round 1:
1. Arian Foster (RB1)
2. LeSean McCoy (RB2)
3. Ray Rice (RB3)
4. Maurice Jones-Drew (RB4)
5. Calvin Johnson (WR1)
6. Chris Johnson (RB5)
7. Ryan Mathews (RB6)
8. Hakeem Nicks (WR2)
9. Aaron Rodgers (QB1)
10. Darren McFadden (RB7)
11. Larry Fitzgerald (WR3)
12. Cam Newton (QB2)
13. Rob Gronkowski (TE1)
14. A.J. Green (WR4)

Now realize, this took place about a month ago, so we have a chance to see how values have changed since.

The top 3 picks are no surprise.

At the time, MJD is a solid choice at #4. Now there is a strong possibility that he will hold out of training camp, and could extend into the regular season, as he is looking for a new contract.

Calvin, Chris and Mathews are nice choices as well. Chris is due for a bounce back season with a full offseason again, Mathews is in line for a huge workload (question is can he handle it, with his injury history) and I am not afraid of the Madden Curse when it comes to Calvin.

The kicker here is Nicks at 8 overall.

" I was hoping Chris Johnson fell to 1.08 due to the negative hype, but I think his ADP is starting to rebound.  So I went with the highest WR on my board, Hakeem Nicks."

Those words from Jarrett. This is before the Nicks injury, so clearly, Nicks won't be touched at this pick as of now. But Nicks should be fine when the season starts, so he is going to be great value for where he is being drafted, currently.

Others felt it wasn't the best pick at the time. Josh Moore said the following: " Hakeem Nicks at 1.08 with Aaron Rodgers on the board was a big time reach."

Rodgers was the best player available for Andrew as " all of the guys I wanted were gone by my pick at 9".

As for my pick of McFadden, I only took him because I felt I needed a top RB being in the 10-hole in a 14-team draft. But the fact is, McFadden just can't stay healthy, and thus, I probably will not be touching him in any drafts.

Really like Shane's pick of Fitzgerald at 11. Huge fan of Fitzy, and he will just continue to post numbers, no matter who is under center.

Brian threw quite the wrench in this draft by selecting Newton at 12 overall. Love Newton's skill set, but 1st round is too rich for my blood.

And Gronkowski and Green are nice players at the back end of Round 1 in the 14-team draft.

Best value of this round, I would say Shane getting Fitzgerald at 11, although these are the top players, so hard to give out best value, per se. Worst value would be my pick of McFadden, looking back. McFadden at 10 looks to be way too high as we enter July because it's just so difficult to draft him thinking you're going to get 16 games out of him.

Round 2:

15. Andre Johnson (WR5)
16. Matt Forte (RB8)
17. Marshawn Lynch (RB9)
18. Jimmy Graham (TE2)
19. Jamaal Charles (RB10)
20. Trent Richardson (RB11)
21. DeMarco Murray (RB12)
22. Julio Jones (WR6)
23. Tom Brady (QB3)
24. Drew Brees (QB4)
25. Adrian Peterson (RB13)
26. Matthew Stafford (QB5)
27. Dez Bryant (WR7)
28. Ahmad Bradshaw (RB14)

Solid group of guys in Round 2.

Shane loved his pick of Graham at 18 overall, saying that his ADP is "moving into the Top 12" and getting him here was "AWESOME."

Shane also was not so fond of Brian's pick of Lynch. "Just not a fan this year, and as a RB1, Lynch is far too scary for me."

Loved Eric grabbing Julio Jones here. Huge fan of Julio's this year, and I wouldn't be afraid to grab him here, either.

Looking back, I honestly don't like my start. I took two RBs who are either really injury-prone, or coming off serious injury.

Each of the top 5 QBs are gone by the end of this round. Getting a stud QB becomes more important in a 14-team league, but as we'll see later, solid QBs can still be had later.

If he is fully healthy, AP is a steal at 2.11. Question will be how healthy will he be come Week 1.

Round 3:

29. Victor Cruz (WR8)
30. Darren Sproles (RB15)
31. Wes Welker (WR9)
32. Greg Jennings (WR10)
33. Fred Jackson (RB16)
34. Roddy White (WR11)
35. Steven Jackson (RB17)
36. Doug Martin (RB18)
37. Brandon Marshall (WR12)
38. Eli Manning (QB6)
39. Mike Wallace (WR13)
40. Jordy Nelson (WR14)
41. Frank Gore (RB19)
42. Roy Helu (RB20)

Looking back, it was interesting I decided to go with Eli at this pick when guys like Ryan, Rivers, Romo and other could be had later. Good thing is there were still solid WRs on the board at this point as I was still without a WR.

Really like Sproles as the 15th RB off the board in a PPR league. Also like Fred Jackson as the 16th off the board.

Nothing terrible here, except Gore a tad high for me, but in a 14-teamer at the end of Round 3, it's not a bad pick.

Round 4:
43. Reggie Bush (RB21)
44. Tony Romo (QB7)
45. Miles Austin (WR15)
46. Philip Rivers (QB8)
47. Vincent Jackson (WR16)
48. Beanie Wells (RB22)
49. Demaryius Thomas (WR17)
50. Michael Vick (QB9)
51. Percy Harvin (WR18)
52. Dwayne Bowe (WR19)
53. Marques Colston  (WR20)
54. Steve Smith (WR21)
55. Antonio Brown (WR22)
56. Steve Johnson (WR23)

Had my back to the wall as far as getting a WR1, and VJax can be pretty scary as a WR1. Has been so inconsistent and no longer has Rivers throwing to him. No disrespect to Josh Freeman. Would rather have taken Harvin or Smith.

Really love the value on Smith as the 21st WR off the board, as did Josh. "Steve Smith at 4.12 is a great value pick. Tremendous player and top 10 WR last year, which should be easily repeatable if he stays healthy."

Jarrett was in the same boat as Josh and I, having this to say: " Ryan's pick of Carolina Steve Smith at 4.12 was great value.  He's shown no signs of slowing down, and Cam should improve as a passer going into his second season and first with a full camp.  It goes to show you how deep WR is this year that you can get a high quality WR1 at the end of the 4th."

Demaryius Thomas also has Top 10 upside with Peyton Manning now throwing to him. He put up great numbers last year with Tim Tebow, and I think we can all agree that Peyton is a tad better than Tebow.

Round 5:
57. Michael Turner (RB23)
58. Vernon Davis (TE3)
59. Kenny Britt (WR24)
60. Peyton Manning (QB10)
61. BenJarvus Green-Ellis (RB24)
62. Jonathan Stewart (RB25)
63. Jeremy Maclin (WR25)
64. Eric Decker (WR26)
65. C.J. Spiller (RB26)
66. DeSean Jackson (WR27)
67. Mark Ingram (RB27)
68. Brandon Lloyd (WR28)
69. Jason Witten (TE4)
70. Antonio Gates (TE5)

Love, love, love Maclin as the 25th WR off the board. I really think this is going to be a top-10 season for him. Very nice pick by Eric.

There comes a time when the value outweighs the risk. And that's what happened here with Josh selecting Turner at 57 overall, the 23rd RB off the board. I think Rodgers and Snelling get more involved, but even in a PPR league, Turner is still solid at this point in the draft.

Green-Ellis stock has been hurt a bit by the fact that Cincinnati has said there may be a committee between the Law Firm and Bernard Scott.

DeSean has value as the 27th WR, being in an Eagles offense that looks to put up a lot of points this season.

I also really like Lloyd here. I think being back with Josh McDaniels and having Tom Brady throwing to him, Lloyd will put up some huge numbers and should well outperform this position.

Alex got one of the better values in Gates No. 70 overall in a 14-teamer.

Round 6:
71. Issac Redman (RB28)
72. Matt Ryan (QB11)
73. Ben Tate (RB29)
74. Torrey Smith (WR29)
75. Justin Blackmon (WR30)
76. Robert Griffin III (QB12)
77. Aaron Hernandez (TE6)
78. Jermichael Finley (TE7)
79. Reggie Wayne (WR31)
80. Pierre Garcon (WR32)
81. Michael Bush (RB30)
82. David Wilson (RB31)
83. Sidney Rice (WR33)
84. Denarious Moore (WR34)

This is why I am questioning why I took Eli in Round 3. Matt Ryan as the 11th QB taken, going in Round 6, 72nd overall is tremendous value, in my eyes. I am very high on Ryan and could have gotten him in Round 5.

Instead, I went with Justin Blackmon (I believe this was before his DUI). No way I take him this high again, even if he was only my WR3. Just looking at the 4 WRs who went after him in this round, I'd now rather any of the 4, especially Wayne. Indy will be throwing a lot because they will be trailing a lot. I expect Luck to start locking in on Wayne, who still has a good bit left in the tank.

Josh took the WR with his last name, Denarious Moore, who is a nice sleeper in what could be an improved Raiders offense.

Andrew's pick of RG3 is quite interesting, considering he had already drafted Aaron Rodgers. Best Ball leagues do take a different approach, but how many games will Griffin score more points than Rodgers? You won't usually see someone who drafts Rodgers take a backup, especially one just 5 rounds later.

And especially as the 12th QB taken. I'm not ready to put Griffin that high, but he has upside.

Round 7:
85. Ben Roethlisberger (QB13)
86. Jay Cutler (QB14)
87. Fred Davis (TE7)
88. DeAngelo Williams (RB31)
89. Shonn Greene (RB32)
90. Brandon Pettigrew (TE8)
91. Robert Meachem (WR35)
92. Josh Freeman (QB15)
93. Kyle Rudolph (TE9)
94. Peyton Hillis (RB33)
95. Andrew Luck (QB16)
96. Owen Daniels (TE10)
97. Michael Crabtree (WR36)
98. Matt Schaub (QB17)

Really like Hillis as the 33rd RB. This was probably a handcuff to Charles, but don't think that's all he is. Hillis will get a lot of work in this offense, especially at the goal line. Hillis has the possibility of 1,000 yards and 7+ TDs.

Andrew is high on Rudolph this season, and he is a deep sleeper at TE. But the 9th TE? Way too early. Could have gotten much later. Especially with guys like Celek and Gonzalez and Tamme still on the board.

Greene is another of those "He has value because of where he's drafted" picks. I've never been a Greene fan, but hard to argue as the 32nd RB taken. He should still see most of the work for the Jets backfield.

Round 8:
99. Michael Floyd (WR37)
100. Malcom Floyd (WR38)
101. Willis McGahee (RB34)
102. Jahvid Best (RB35)
103. Coby Fleener (TE11)
104. Mike Williams (WR39)
105. Lance Moore (WR40)
106. Donald Brown (RB35)
107. Ronnie Hillman (RB36)
108. Brent Celek (TE12)
109. LeGarrette Blount (RB37)
110. Steven Ridley (RB38)
111. Ryan Williams (RB39)
112. Tony Gonzalez (TE13)

I do like Fleener this season, but if I would to do this again, I'd take Celek over him. Really like that pick for Allie. The Eagles offensive line is finally intact, meaning Celek is free to run routes and catch balls again, instead of staying in to block. Celek did finish as TE10 last season.

Even better last season than Celek was Gonzalez, last year's TE4. And he's taken as the 13th TE by Josh. Another great value.

Atlanta's offense will be very pass-heavy and Gonzo will be a major part of it.

Love Mike Williams as WR39. I think with VJax in town, the pressure will be taken off Williams and I think he returns to his rookie form.

Brian and Shane also got nice value with McGahee and Best as RBs 34 and 35, respectively.

Ryan Williams is another guy to target late, as we saw here. Beanie is still questionable, so if healthy, Williams could end up as the starting RB for the Cardinals.

I will pick up the rest of the draft in Part 2

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