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Monday, June 25, 2012

32 Fantasy Previews: Carolina Panthers

Our Preview series continues with the Carolina Panthers.

Cam Newton

2010's Heisman Trophy winner and National Champion at Auburn, Newton was arguably the waiver wire pickup of the year.

Newton beat out Jimmy Clausen as a rookie, and broke records left and right.

He became the 1st rookie quarterback ever to throw for 4,000 yards in a season. Not even the great Peyton Manning threw for 4,000 as a rookie (he was the previous record holder with over 3,700).

Newton also broke the record for most rushing touchdowns by a quarterback with 14.

It all added up to a 4th-place finish for Newton, only behind Rodgers, Brees and Brady.

I am worried and fairly confident that Newton will not match his 14 rushing TDs. But many people (including myself at times) were overlooking that fact that he did throw for 4,000 yards. I think Newton will continue to improve as a quarterback and should get to 4,000 yet again.

What is a bit surprising it that Newton is the 2nd QB off the board, averaging just outside Round 1 in a 12-team league.

I do like Newton, but I wouldn't draft him as the 2nd QB off the board, nor would I take him that high, pick wise.


DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart

If there was one negative thing about Newton, was he made owners of Williams and Stewart very frustrated each week.

Once Carolina got to the goal line, Newton was always calling his own number.

Of course, Carolina's committee system did enough frustrating on its own.

Williams and Stewart got nearly the exact same number of carries (Williams-155, Stewart-142). And their yards per carry were extremely close (Williams-5.39, Stewart-5.36).

Williams found the end zone 7 times, Stewart 5 times.

In fact, these two were right next to each other in the final RB scoring list. Stewart was 25th, Williams was 26th.

What separates the two is Stewart hauled in 47 receptions, Williams only had 16.

So what we're looking at is a straight committee, but Stewart gets the slight nod based on his receptions.

And don't let the presence of Mike Tolbert scare you. He'll be a straight fullback in Carolina.

Stewart is currently RB23 in ADP, averaging Round 6, Williams is RB36, averaging Round 10.

I like the gamble on both backs for where they are going, especially Williams. He has the ability to break a big one at any time, so for a 10th round pick, the value is there.

Steve Smith

What a difference a year (and a better quarterback) make.

With Jimmy Clausen and Matt Moore at quarterback in 2010, Smith had a very forgetable year, posting just 46 catches for 554 yards and only two touchdowns.

Enter Cam Newton in 2011, and Smith was re-vitalized, grabbing 79 passes for 1,394 yards and 7 touchdowns, giving him a 6th-place finish among WRs in fantasy scoring.

It was also the first time since 2005 that Smith played all 16 games in a season.

Smith was rewarded with a new contract in April, and as long as Newton is there, Smith will be back among the top of the WR crew in fantasy.

What would be even better is if someone can step up opposite Smith to give Smith some room to work with.

That's why you should watch the battle between David Gettis and Brandon LaFell for the WR2 job in Carolina. I like LaFell as a deep sleeper, but Gettis would have value as well, should he win the job.

Smith is going as the 23rd WR off the board, in Round 5, which is tremendous value. A top 6 WR last year, going outside the top 20. I'd take that any day I can get it.


Greg Olsen

Yet another reason to be comfortable about TE, even if you miss out on Graham and Gronkowski.

Last year, Carolina had two solid receiving tight ends in Olsen and Jeremy Shockey. They combined for 82 catches, 995 yards and 9 touchdowns. That would actually rank #3 among TEs, ahead of Aaron Hernandez.

Shockey is now gone, leaving Olsen by himself to receive all the TE targets. And remember, OC Rob Chudzinski's offense is geared toward the tight end.

And Jeff Otah is expected to be back healthy this season, allowing Olsen to run more routes.

Olsen is currently the 19th TE off the board, going in Round 14. That could turn into amazing value at the TE position as Olsen has top 10 potential in this offense.

Carolina was a surprise team last season, and I think they surprise even more and make the playoffs this season.

Next time, it's the new and improved Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

Until then, this is your boy Bill Wild, signing off.

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