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Saturday, June 9, 2012

32 Fantasy Previews: Washington Redskins

Our 32 Fantasy Previews series rolls along with our final NFC East team: the Washington Redskins.

Robert Griffin III

The newest savior in our nation's capital is a rookie and last year's Heisman Trophy winner.

After trading their 1st and 2nd round picks in 2012, as well as their 1st round picks in 2013 and 2014, Griffin will be expected to step right into the starting QB spot and turn the franchise around.

Now, as far as fantasy potential goes, people are going to compare Griffin to Cam Newton and expect the same type of season. Do not buy into it.

Cam's season was a special one, and the Panthers and Offensive Coordinator Rob Chudzinski designed the playbook specially geared toward Newton.

Newton also has better WRs (i.e. Steve Smith) than Grifiin has.

Now, does this mean Griffin will have a terrible season? Of course not. He'll put up numbers through the air and on the ground.

But it is crazy to believe he will match or top Newton's numbers from last year.

3,000 yards is more realistic for Griffin.

Currently, Griffin is the 12th QB off the board, on average, as in being taken in the 7th round. This means he is being drafted as a starting QB in a 12-team league, ahead of QBs such as Ben Roethlisberger, Matt Schaub, even Jay Cutler.

I think Griffin does have some upside, but I am not quite ready to tout him as a starting fantasy quarterback, just yet.

Roy Helu, Tim Hightower, Evan Royster

Roy Helu
At least with Griffin, you know who will be starting week in and week out.

But when it comes to the running backs, that's where things get fun and the Shanahanigans begin.

That's why I grouped the running backs together. Head coach Mike Shanahan has been known to constantly change whoever the starting running back, which always causes headaches to fantasy owners.

At the start of the season, Hightower was the main back. 25 and 20 carries in Weeks 1 and 2, then 14 in Week 3. Then out of nowhere, Hightower only gets eight in Week 4, and it's Ryan Torain who picked up 19 carries.

Tim Hightower
Hightower eventually suffered an injury which caused him to miss Week 6.

That Week 6 game was against Philadelphia, and with Torain and Helu as the main backs, many expected Helu to put up big numbers against a porous Eagles run defense.

The Redskins, as a team, combined for 14 carries for 42 yards and one touchdown. 10 of those carries and 22 of those yards were from Torain. And neither RB got the touchdown. That went to QB John Beck.

Hightower returned in Week 7 and received 17 carries for 88 yards. Unfortunately, Hightower suffered an torn ACL in that game, and his season was lost.

Evan Royster
Eventually, Helu got his chance, and really made the most of it, getting 23, 23, 27 and 23 carries from Weeks 12-15, and going for 100+ yards in three of those games.

Even Royster put up big numbers after Helu got hurt for the final two games, as Royster put up lines up 19 carries for 132 yards in Week 16 and 20 carries for 113 yards in Week 17.

Now, things seemed much easier a few weeks ago when it looked like just Helu and Royster, with Torain and Hightower gone. Or so we thought.

Washington spurned fantasy owners everywhere by resigning Hightower.

However, I believe Helu will be the back to own, especially in PPRs. Helu picked up 49 receptions in 2011 and should be in line for more passes in 2012.

Helu is currently the 22nd RB off the board, going on average in Round 6, Royster is the 59th off the board and Hightower is the 65th off the board.

Helu is worth the gamble, Royster, possibly in deeper leagues, Hightower is a wait and see.

Pierre Garcon

When Washington knew they were going after Robert Griffin III, their plan of attack in free agency was to bring in some of the top free agent wide receivers.

However, due to penalties from their cap spending in 2010, Washington's 2012 cap was reduced by $36 million, which they split over two years.

This meant they were pretty much out of the Vincent Jackson running, but they sill reeled in a solid WR in former Colt Pierre Garcon.

Garcon quietly put up a 22nd place finish among WRs in 2011, finishing with 947 yards and six touchdowns, although those six TDs only came in three games (two in Week 4, two in Week 5, two in Week 12).

And this was with Curtis Painter and Dan Orlovsky at quarterback. Now he has Griffin III as his QB.

The question becomes how will Garcon respond to being a #1 WR and receiving a huge contract.

Santana Moss is still in the picture, but he just turned 33 and is more of a slot receiver now.

Washington did also sign Josh Morgan, but how much impact will he make, coming off an injury.

The WR to own in Washington will be Garcon, and right now, he is going off in Round 8 as the 32nd WR.

1,000 yard potential is certainly there, as well as the possibility to reach 7-8 TDs.

Fred Davis

A young TE making his way up the ranks fast is Fred Davis. Davis has 12 TDs in has last three seasons, and really came onto the scene in 2011, receiving 88 targets, catching 59 balls for 793 yards and three TDs. And this was also with him being slapped with a four-game suspension for drug use. So it's fair to wonder what the numbers could have been had he played those four games.

Davis tallied a 12th place finish among TEs, falling just shy of 100 fantasy points.

Davis is back and healthy, and has a better QB to work with in Shanahan's system.

Assuming Davis plays all 16, Davis will continue to be involved in the offense, especially with the high likelihood that long-time Redskins TE Chris Cooley will most likely be cut this offseason.

Davis' current ADP is the ninth TE off the board, going in Round 8. Another solid option to go after if you miss out on Rob Gronkowski and Jimmy Graham.

That does it for the Redskins and the NFC East. Next time, we venture into the NFC North and we will start with the former Super Bowl Champion Green Bay Packers.

Until next time, this is your boy, Bill Wild, signing off.

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