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Monday, June 11, 2012

32 Fantasy Previews: Green Bay Packers

Hope everyone had a good weekend. The 32 Fantasy Preview series roll along as we enter the NFC North and start with the Green Bay Packers

Aaron Rodgers

Is there really that much more to say about the Super Bowl XLV MVP? Rodgers is the consensus #1 QB, and it's hard to argue against that.

Rodgers threw for 4,643 yards and 45 touchdowns and only threw six interceptions (That's just one interception for every seven and a half touchdown passes).

Rodgers also added three rushing touchdowns, adding more value to an already immense amount.

In this offense, 4,500 is just about a baseline for Rodgers. I actually expect Rodgers to challenge for 5,000 this season.

If you want Rodgers, you better be prepared to spend your first pick on him. He is, on average, a top 5 overall pick. So you have to choose whether to spend that high a pick on Rodgers, or wait on a QB.

James Starks

For as prolific as the passing game was for Green Bay last season, that's how quiet their running game was. Their highest scoring RB was someone who is no longer with the team, and that is Ryan Grant, who ranked 36th among RBs.

Starks, on the other hand, missed three games due to injury, and finished 43rd, with just 578 yards and one rushing touchdown.

B.J. Raji matched Starks in terms of rushing touchdowns.

Starks is set as the starter, with Brandon Saine and Alex Green behind him. I expect Green to get some playing time this season, after suffering a torn ACL last season.

Even with that, I don't expect Green Bay's running game to wow anybody. This is a passing team, first, Rodgers will run it himself, John Kuhn will come it at times, and they've showed they're willing to let Raji run it once in a while.

Starks is the 45th RB off the board, going in Round 12. It is a bit of a low risk, but I personally, will by staying away from the Green Bay running game.

Greg Jennings

Jennings was rolling along before an injury suffered against the Raiders caused him to miss the last three regular season games. He finished just 51 yards shy of his 4th straight 1,000 yard season. He also hauled in nine touchdowns, good for an 18th-place finish.

Jennings is back, and should, once again, be the top option in a high-flying attack.

He'll challenge for 1,000 yards yet again, and double-digit touchdowns are always a possibility, especially since he's gotten there twice already in his career.

Currently, Jennings is the 9th WR off the board, going in Round 3, which I think is really good value. I'd draft him as early as middle of Round 2.

Jordy Nelson

For as good as Jennings was last season, the kid from Kansas State was even better. Jordy Nelson became one of 2011's breakout stars, going for 1,263 yards and 15 touchdowns, finishing 2nd among WRs, only to Calvin Johnson.

You have to think defenses will now focus a bit more on Nelson, but it's tough with Jennings on the other side, the threat of Rodgers running the ball, Finley at tight end, and the rise of Randall Cobb.

I do not think Nelson matches his 15 TDs this year, but 10 is a strong possibility. He'll have a tough time returning to the top 10 among WRs, but he should easily be top 20-25.

Nelson is currently the 14th WR off the board, going late-3rd, early-4th. Good spot for him as a solid WR2.

(Sleeper candidate: Randall Cobb. With Donald Driver aging, Cobb could get a chance to slide into some playing time, and is also a strong kick returner for those in return yardage leagues. He's worth a late-round flyer, unless you want to wait and watch him during the preseason and try to pick him up through the waiver wire.)

Jermichael Finley

Jermichael Finley is, in my eyes (and possibly many others), the biggest boom-or-bust fantasy tight end.

On the boom side, he managed to grab eight touchdowns last season, including three in one game, and one in each of his final two games. He also finished 5th among TEs in 2011.

On the bust side, he scored less than eight points in eight of the 15 games he played. You can also use the touchdowns as a bust, as three of his eight touchdowns came way back in Week 3. He has also yet to play a full 16-game season in his 4-year career.

We know the upside with Finley is high. But he has yet to put it all together, and there are so many mouths to feed in Green Bay. Until he puts it all together, it's hard for me to rank him among the top 5 TEs, which is where he is being drafted, currently.

He is currently a late-5th, early-6th round pick. He's even being drafted higher than Antonio Gates and Jason Witten. If I'm in that position, I'm taking Gates first, then Witten, then Finley.

That's a look at the Packers and their fantasy impact players. Next time, we travel to the Motor City to check out the Detroit Lions.

Until next time, this is your boy Bill Wild, signing off.


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